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Dynamics of Two-Strain Influenza with Isolation and Cross-Immunity

The evolution of influenza type A virus is tightly linked to a non-fixed evolutionary landscape driven by tight co-evolutionary interactions between hosts and influenza strains. Cross-immunity, host isolation, and age-structure are three important factors responsible for the coexistence and dynamics of multiple strains of influenza. Here, it is shown that cross-immunity and host isolation is enough to support the possibility of multi-strain epidemics. In fact, sustained oscillations with reasonable periods are possible. We establish the possibility via Hopf-bifurcation theory, and illustrate our results with simulations. The length of the period agrees with reported data.

Article Number:
BU-1530-M

Year:
2000

Authors:
Miriam Nuño. Claremont Graduate University
Project supervisor: Carlos Castillo-Chávez, Cornell University

dynamics_of_two_strain_influenza_with_isolation_and_cross_immunity.pdf